The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in unprecedented large and rapid
changes in many data series, and similarly unprecedented large policy
responses, making analysis of, and longer run predictions for, the economy
and housing markets exceptionally difficult and uncertain. HUD will continue
to monitor market conditions in the HMA and provide an updated report/
addendum in the future.
COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS
Gainesville, Florida
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development,
Oce of Policy Development and Research
As of January 1, 2021
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Executive Summary 2Gainesville, Florida Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2021
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Gainesville, Florida
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
Executive Summary
Housing Market Area Description
The Gainesville Housing Market Area (HMA) is coterminous with the
Metropolitan Statistical Area of the same name, including Alachua
and Gilchrist Counties.
The population is currently estimated at 290,600.
The HMA is in northern central Florida and is home to the University
of Florida (UF) and UF Health. The presence of the university
supports high-tech jobs, and tourists are attracted to the HMA for
its museums, performing arts, natural spring waters, and more than
200 miles of walking trails.
Tools and Resources
Find interim updates for this metropolitan area, and select geographies nationally,
at PD&R’s Market-at-a-Glance tool.
Additional data for the HMA can be found in this report’s supplemental tables.
For information on HUD-supported activity in this area, see the Community Assessment Reporting Tool.
Executive Summary 3Gainesville, Florida Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2021
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Gainesville, Florida
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
Market Qualifiers
Nonfarm payrolls increased by an average of 2,700
jobs, or 2.0 percent, a year from 2012 through 2019,
before declining by 5,400 jobs, or 3.6 percent,
to 142,600 jobs in 2020. Job losses during the
recent year were concentrated in the second
quarter of 2020 as a result of actions taken to slow
the spread of COVID-19. By comparison, 2,400
jobs, or 1.6 percent, were added in 2019. During
2020, job losses were greatest in the leisure and
hospitality sector, which declined by 2,600 jobs,
or 16.1 percent. During the 3-year forecast period,
nonfarm payroll growth is expected to average 1.6
percent annually as jobs lost during the pandemic
are regained.
The sales housing market has an estimated
1.5-percent vacancy rate, down from a 3.1-percent
rate in 2010. During 2020, existing home sales
decreased 4 percent, whereas the average existing
home sales price was up 8 percent from a year
earlier, to $226,700 (Zonda). During the next 3
years, demand is expected for 2,475 new homes;
the 840 homes currently under construction are
expected to meet part of the demand during the first
year of the forecast period.
The rental housing market in the HMA had an
overall estimated vacancy rate of 11.8 percent, down
from 12.4 percent in April 2010. Apartment market
conditions are slightly tight, with a 3.2-percent
vacancy rate during the fourth quarter of 2020,
compared with a 2.5-percent rate a year earlier
(Moody’s Analytics REIS). During the forecast period,
demand is expected for 1,775 new rental units.
The 1,625 units currently under construction are
expected to satisfy most of the demand during the
forecast period.
Economy
Weak: During 2020, nonfarm
payrolls decreased 3.6 percent,
following more than 8 years of
job gains
Rental Market
Balanced: During the fourth quarter
of 2020, the average apartment
rent increased 1 percent from a year
earlier to $1,013 a month.
Sales Market
Balanced: New and existing
home sales decreased 2 percent
during 2020.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Economic Conditions 4
Population and Households 9
Home Sales Market 12
Rental Market 17
Terminology Definitions and Notes 21
Notes: Total demand represents estimated production necessary to achieve a balanced market at the end of the forecast period. Units under
construction as of January 1, 2021. The forecast period is January 1, 2021, to January 1, 2024.
Source: Estimates by the analyst
3-Year Housing Demand Forecast
Sales Units Rental Units
Gainesville HMA
Total Demand 2,475 1,775
Under Construction 840 1,625
Economic Conditions 4Gainesville, Florida Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2021
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Gainesville, Florida
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
Economic Conditions
Largest sector: Government
The government sector represents
30 percent of the payrolls in the
Gainesville HMA.
Primary Local Economic Factors
The Gainesville HMA is supported by UF, the largest
employer in the HMA and a state-funded institution
with 31,500 employees (Table 1) that enrolls more
than 50,000 students a year. The state government
subsector accounts for 20 percent of all jobs in the
HMA (Figure 1) and includes UF. Students, faculty,
and graduates of UF, along with research centers
at the university, support creating high-tech jobs
in the HMA. The UF Innovation District is a mixed-
use community of offices, luxury apartments, and
entertainment venues between UF and downtown
Gainesville. Collaboration between UF and
companies in the Innovation District bolsters payrolls
in the HMA, including jobs in the transportation and
utilities sector, which nearly doubled from 2001
through 2019, and in the professional and business
services sector, which increased by an average of
300 jobs, or 2.1 percent, during the same period
(Figure 2). At the Innovation District, Kimley-Horn,
a consulting company, has hired 120 UF graduates
since 2013. In addition to the importance of UF,
tourism strengthens the local economy, and the
leisure and hospitality sector accounts for 9 percent
of payrolls in the Gainesville HMA. Before the
Table 1. Major Employers in the Gainesville HMA
Name of Employer Nonfarm Payroll Sector Number of Employees
University of Florida Government 31,500
University of Florida Health Education & Health Services 12,950
Malcom Randall Department of Veterans Aairs Medical Center Government 6,125
North Florida Regional Medical Center Education & Health Services 1,950
Gator Dining Services Leisure & Hospitality 1,200
Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company Professional & Business Services 1,325
Sante Fe College Government 900
Walmart Inc. Wholesale & Retail Trade 900
Publix Super Markets, Inc. Wholesale & Retail Trade 750
RTI Surgical Inc. Manufacturing 550
Note: Excludes local school districts.
Source: Greater Gainesville Chamber of Commerce
Mining, Logging, & Construction 4%
Manufacturing 3%
Wholesale 2%
Retail 10%
Transportation & Utilities 2%
Information 1%
Financial Activities 5%
Professional &
Business Services 11%
Leisure & Hospitality 9%
Other Services 3%
Federal 3%
State 20%
Local 7%
Education & Health Services 18%
Government
30%
Trade 13%
Total
142.6
Figure 1. Share of Nonfarm Payroll Jobs in the Gainesville HMA, by Sector
Notes: Total nonfarm payroll is in thousands. Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to rounding. Percentage of retail and wholesale do not
add up to total trade sector due to rounding. Based on 12-month averages through December 2020.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Economic Conditions 5Gainesville, Florida Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2021
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Gainesville, Florida
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
pandemic, during 2019, this sector accounted for 11
percent of payrolls in the HMA. Tourists are attracted
to the HMA to enjoy unspoiled wetlands and fresh
springs, UF Gators football, and university museums
and galleries. Visitors to UF Health come from
throughout the northern Florida region for the highly
rated healthcare.
Current Conditions—Impacts
of COVID-19
Nonfarm Payrolls
During 2020, nonfarm payrolls in the Gainesville
HMA decreased by 5,400 jobs, or 3.6 percent
(Table 2). By comparison, during 2020, nonfarm
payrolls in the state and nation decreased 4.3 and
5.8 percent, respectively. In the HMA, the mining,
logging, and construction sector increased by 100
jobs, or 1.6 percent. Some of the sector gain can be
attributed to the recent increase in homebuilding,
the construction of the new baseball field at UF that
was finished in October of 2020, and the three-story
tower at North Florida Regional Medical Center
that was completed in November 2020. However,
most nonfarm payroll sectors in the HMA lost jobs
during 2020. The largest decline was in the leisure
and hospitality sector, which lost 2,600 jobs, or
16.1 percent. COVID-19 was declared a pandemic
by the World Health Organization on March 11,
2020. The state of Florida issued a shelter-in-place
order beginning on April 3, 2020. Among other
restrictions, the order resulted in the closure of all
schools, restaurant dining rooms, barbershops and
Table 2. 12-Month Average Nonfarm Payroll Jobs (1,000s) in the Gainesville HMA, by Sector
12 Months Ending
December 2019
12 Months Ending
December 2020
Absolute
Change
Percentage
Change
Total Nonfarm Payroll Jobs 148.0 142.6 -5.4 -3.6
Goods-Producing Sectors 10.9 11.0 0.1 0.9
Mining, Logging, & Construction 6.1 6.2 0.1 1.6
Manufacturing 4.8 4.8 0.0 0.0
Service-Providing Sectors 137.1 131.6 -5.5 -4.0
Wholesale & Retail Trade 18.0 17.9 -0.1 -0.6
Transportation & Utilities 3.3 3.3 0.0 0.0
Information 1.8 1.7 -0.1 -5.6
Financial Activities 6.8 6.7 -0.1 -1.5
Professional & Business Services 15.3 15.4 0.1 0.7
Education & Health Services 27.5 26.3 -1.2 -4.4
Leisure & Hospitality 16.1 13.5 -2.6 -16.1
Other Services 4.4 4.2 -0.2 -4.5
Government 44.0 42.9 -1.1 -2.5
Notes:
Based on 12-month averages through December 2019 and December 2020. Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding. Data are in thousands.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Total Nonfarm Payroll Jobs
Goods-Producing Sectors
Mining, Logging, &
Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing Sectors
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Transportation & Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & Business
Services
Education & Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Other Services
Government
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Change in Jobs (%)
Figure 2. Sector Growth in the Gainesville HMA, 2001 Through 2019
Note: The current date is January 1, 2021.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Economic Conditions 6Gainesville, Florida Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2021
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Gainesville, Florida
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
salons, bars, and gyms in the state; the order also
required that all businesses deemed nonessential
must limit their activity to minimum basic operations.
Although the order was relaxed in late April,
many businesses had significantly lower sales as
commerce slowed due to the unwillingness of
consumers to return to pre-pandemic behaviors.
From February to April 2020, nonfarm payrolls
declined by 18,600 jobs, or 12 percent. As of
January 1, 2021, 10,900 jobs had been regained,
representing 59 percent of jobs lost. Currently,
nonfarm payrolls are still 5 percent below the
February 2020 level (not seasonally adjusted).
Unemployment
After the unemployment rate in the HMA peaked
at 8.2 percent during 2010, the rate declined to a
low of 2.9 percent during the 12 months ending
February 2020 (Figure 3). As a result of the efforts
used to contain the spread of COVID-19, the
unemployment rate increased to 5.1 percent during
2020, up from 3.0 percent a year earlier. The rate in
the HMA has been consistently below the national
rate, which increased from a low of 3.6 percent
during the 12 months ending February 2020 to the
current rate of 8.1 percent. The national rate peaked
during the 12 months ending November 2010 at
9.7 percent.
2.9
3.6
8.2
9.7
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Unemployment Rate (%)
Gainesville HMA Nation
Figure 3. 12-Month Average Unemployment Rate in the Gainesville HMA and the Nation
Note: Based on the 12-month moving average.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Economic Periods of Significance
2001 through 2008
The economy expanded by an average of 1,400 jobs, or 1.1 percent, annually from 2003 through 2008,
following a period of relatively flat nonfarm payroll growth during 2001 and 2002 (Figure 4). The leisure and
hospitality, the professional and business services, and the education and health services sectors led the
growth from 2003 through 2008, adding an average of 400, 300, and 300 jobs, or 3.0, 3.3, and 1.5 percent, a
year, respectively. In 2007 and 2008, Walmart Inc. and Sysco Corporation added facilities in the warehouse and
distribution hub located between Interstate 75 and U.S. Route 41 in northern Alachua County, adding 600 and
150 jobs, respectively.
Economic Conditions 7Gainesville, Florida Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2021
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Gainesville, Florida
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
2009 through 2011
In the wake of the Great Recession (which lasted
nationally from December 2007 through June
2009), nonfarm payrolls in the HMA declined by an
average of 2,200 jobs, or 1.7 percent, annually from
2009 through 2011. The largest annual losses in
the HMA were in the goods-producing sectors. The
mining, logging, and construction sector decreased
by an average of 600 jobs, or 11.9 percent, a year,
and the manufacturing sector declined by an
average of 400 jobs, or 7.7 percent, annually. Losses
in the construction industry can be attributed to the
sudden drop in homebuilding from 2009 through
2011. In 2011, the Coca-Cola Company laid off 87
employees in High Springs, and Georgia-Pacific
eliminated 400 jobs.
2012 through 2015
The local economy began a modest recovery in
2012. Nonfarm payrolls rose an average of 2,100
jobs, or 1.6 percent, a year from 2012 through
2015. The education and health services and the
professional and business services sectors led the
growth, increasing by an average of 500 jobs, or 2.0
and 4.5 percent, respectively. UF Health expanded
its pediatric cardiac intensive care unit and opened
UF Health Congenital Heart Center in 2014. These
developments, along with the construction of
the $46 million UF education building in 2015,
contributed to gains in the mining, logging, and
construction sector, which added an average of 200
jobs, or 4.8 percent, annually from 2012 through 2015.
Figure 4. 12-Month Average Nonfarm Payrolls in the Gainesville HMA
Note: 12-month moving average.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research
110
120
130
140
150
160
Nonfarm Payrolls (in Thousands)
National Recession Nonfarm Payrolls
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
2016 through 2019
Nonfarm payroll growth in the Gainesville HMA accelerated from 2016 through 2019, increasing by an average
of 3,300 jobs, or 2.3 percent, annually. During 2015, nonfarm payrolls exceeded the 2008 high. Although the
rate of growth in the HMA during this period was stronger compared with previous periods, it was slower than
the average growth of 2.4 percent for the nation and 3.5 percent for Florida. Again, the education and health
services and the professional and business services sectors led the growth, increasing by respective averages
of 800 and 600 jobs, or 3.2 and 4.4 percent, annually. Payrolls in the transportation and utilities sector
increased by an average of 100 jobs, or 4.2 percent, annually from 2016 through 2019. Optym, an automation
transportation and logistics company, opened its headquarters in the Innovation District in 2017 and added 155
employees. Amazon.com, Inc. opened a distribution center in 2018 in northern Gainesville, which added 100
employees. The mining, logging, and construction sector had the largest average annual percentage increase
from 2016 through 2019, up 6.7 percent, or by an average of 400 jobs. Some of these gains can be attributed to
an increase in homebuilding as well as UF Health construction projects during this period.
Economic Conditions 8Gainesville, Florida Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2021
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Gainesville, Florida
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
Economic Sectors of Significance
State Government Subsector
Payrolls in the state government subsector represent nearly two-thirds of the
government sector, which is the largest sector in the HMA, comprising 30 percent
of all payrolls. The state subsector decreased by 1,000 jobs, or 3.5 percent,
during 2020. This is compared with a gain of 200 jobs, or 0.6 percent, during
2019. The state government subsector includes UF, with an annual statewide
economic impact estimated at $10.4 billion for the 2017–2018 fiscal year (UF
Economic Impact Analysis, 2018). Employment at UF rose from 29,600 full- and
part-time employees during the fall of 2015 to nearly 31,500 employees in the fall
of 2019, an average annual increase of 480 employees, or 1.6 percent. During the
same period, UF enrollment increased by an average of 1,000 students annually.
Approximately 57,850 students were enrolled at UF in the fall of 2020, up from
56,550 a year earlier. The university has been gaining in popularity and was
ranked sixth-best public university in the nation by
U.S. News and World Report
in 2020.
Education and Health Services
The education and health services sector is the second largest sector in the
Gainesville HMA and currently accounts for 26,300 jobs, or 18 percent of total
nonfarm payrolls. During 2020, payrolls in the sector decreased by 1,200 jobs,
or 4.4 percent, compared with a gain of 1,100 jobs, or 4.0 percent, during 2019.
The education and health services sector has added jobs nearly every year since
2001, increasing by an average of 400 jobs, or 1.8 percent, annually from 2001
through 2018. In December 2017, UF Health opened the UF Health and Vascular
Hospital and UF Health Neuromedicine Hospital, which added 216 new rooms at
the cost of $415 million. A new North Florida Regional Medical Center freestanding
emergency facility also opened in Gainesville in 2017—one of four emergency
facilities added to the Gainesville HMA since 2015—adding 45 jobs.
Leisure and Hospitality
The leisure and hospitality sector increased by an average of 300 jobs, or 2.2
percent, from 2011 through 2019. During the past year, however, the leisure and
hospitality sector declined by 2,600 jobs, or 16.1 percent, because travel slowed
amid efforts to limit the spread of COVID-19. Tourists are attracted to the sporting
events, museums and art galleries at UF, the wetlands, and the natural springs
in the northern part of the HMA. In 2019, visitors to Alachua County spent an
estimated $841 million (Alachua County Visitor and Convention Bureau). Some of
these visitors attended UF Gators football games. In 2019, the average Gators
game filled more than 96 percent of the nearly 89,000 seats at Ben Hill Griffin
Stadium, the largest football stadium in Florida. Visitors also come to the HMA
to access the UF Health Shands Hospital, which was tied with the Mayo Clinic as
the best ranked hospital in Florida by
U.S. News and World Report
in 2020. Hotel
Eleo, a $32 million, 173-room boutique hotel, opened in the summer of 2020
on the UF campus to accommodate patients and other university visitors. Six
hotels were completed in the HMA from 2016 through the current date, adding
approximately 770 rooms.
Employment Forecast
During the 3-year forecast period, nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase
an average of 1.6 percent annually, with most sectors expected to add jobs. Job
growth is expected to continue in the education and health services sector. North
Florida Regional Medical Center, just east of Interstate 75 in Gainesville, expects
to expand its workforce at the newly completed South Tower by more than
250 jobs during 2021. The mining, logging, and construction sector is expected
to continue to grow partly because construction of a new $85 million football
complex at UF began in late 2020 and is expected to be completed in the winter
of 2021.
Population and Households 9Gainesville, Florida Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2021
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Gainesville, Florida
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
Population and
Households
Current population: 290,600
Population growth since 2010 has been
weaker than during the previous decade
because net in-migration and net natural
increase have slowed.
Population Trends
Population growth has generally followed economic
trends in the HMA because net in-migration
accompanied job gains. During the early-to-
mid 2000s, when the economy expanded, the
population growth rate rose from an average of
1.3 percent, or 2,975 people, annually from 2000
to 2003 to an average of 1.6 percent, or 3,925
people, annually from 2003 to 2008 (Census
Bureau decennial census counts and population
estimates as of July 1; Figure 5). Net in-migration
increased from an average of 2,025 in the early
2000s to 2,750 a year from 2003 to 2008, and net
natural change increased from an average of 950
to 1,175 a year. Population growth slowed during
the economic downturn to an average of 1,725
people, or 0.7 percent, from 2008 to 2011, and net
in-migration declined to 450 people a year, but net
natural change increased to an average of 1,275
people. When the economy began expanding,
net in-migration averaged 1,275 people a year,
Figure 5. Components of Population Change in the Gainesville HMA, 2000 Through the Forecast
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Population Change
Net Natural Change Net Migration
2000-2003
2003-2008
2008-2011
2011-2015
2015-2019
2019-Current
Current-Forecast
Notes: Net natural change and net migration totals are average annual totals over the time period. The forecast period is from the current date
(January 1, 2021) to January 1, 2024.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; current to forecast—estimates by the analyst
which offset a slowdown in net natural change to an average of 1,125 people, resulting in moderate population
growth of 2,400 people, or 0.9 percent, annually from 2011 to 2015. As the expansion accelerated, from 2015 to
2019, net in-migration increased to an average of 2,000 people a year, and net natural change slowed further
to an average of 800 people a year; population increased by an average of 2,800 people, or 1.0 percent,
annually. Despite strengthening economic conditions, the rate of population growth since 2010 was slower
than during the previous decade; this was due to a reduction in both net in-migration and net natural increase,
which averaged 1,525 and 990 a year, respectively, from 2010 to 2019, compared with 2,225 and 1,125 a year,
respectively, from 2000 to 2009. UF students represent nearly 20 percent of the population in the HMA as of
January 1, 2021, slightly higher than the 19-percent student portion of the population in 2010. UF enrollment has
grown an average of 1.4 percent annually since 2010 compared with 0.9 percent for the overall population.
Population and Households 10Gainesville, Florida Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2021
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Gainesville, Florida
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
Household Trends
As of January 1, 2021, the number of households is
estimated at 116,700 (Figure 6). Similar to population
growth, household growth has slowed since 2010,
averaging 930, or 0.8 percent, annually, compared
with an average annual increase of 1,400, or 1.4
percent, from 2000 to 2010. During the 2000s, the
homeownership rate declined slightly from 56.7
percent in 2000 to 56.2 percent in 2010. From
2010 to the current date, the homeownership rate
has declined to 53.6 percent. Only 27 percent of
the growth in households has been attributed to
owner households since 2010, compared with 53
percent of growth from 2000 to 2010. On the other
hand, renter household formation has continued at
a similar pace since 2010, averaging 1.4 percent,
or 690 households, annually, compared with an
average annual increase of 1.5 percent, or 660
households, during the 2000-to-2010 period. Some
of the new renter households in the HMA were
students. At UF, approximately 11,550 students live
on campus (UF Housing). Most of the remaining
46,250 students live nearby in privately-owned
apartments and homes, representing approximately
15,400 households, or approximately 13 percent
of total households in the HMA and 28 percent
of renter households. Since 2010, approximately
600 beds have been added to the UF dormitory
inventory, whereas enrollment has increased by
more than 7,000 students.
56.7
56.2
53.6
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2000 2010 Current
Homeownership Rate (%)
Households
Owner Renter Homeownership Rate (%)
Note: The current date is January 1, 2021.
Sources: 2000 and 2010—2000 Census and 2010 Census; current—estimates by the analyst
Figure 6. Households by Tenure and Homeownership Rate in the Gainesville HMA
Forecast
During the next 3 years, the Gainesville HMA population is expected to increase by an average of 2,800, or
1.0 percent, annually to 299,000, slightly higher than the population growth rate since 2010 (Table 3). Net
in-migration of 2,125 people is expected annually, and net natural increase is estimated to slow slightly to 675
people a year. The HMA will continue to attract new residents due to added payrolls and increased student
enrollment because of the high ranking of the university. The number of households in the HMA is expected to
increase at a slightly slower rate of 1,125, or 0.9 percent, a year to 120,000 by the end of the forecast. Slower
household growth is expected partly because students tend to form larger households. More than 40 percent of
the new households in the HMA are expected to be renter households.
Population and Households 11Gainesville, Florida Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2021
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Gainesville, Florida
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
Population
Quick Facts
2010 Current Forecast
Population
264,275 290,600 299,000
Average Annual Change
3,200 2,450 2,800
Percentage Change
1.3 0.9 1.0
Household
Quick Facts
2010 Current Forecast
Households
106,637 116,700 120,000
Average Annual Change
1,400 930 1,125
Percentage Change
1.4 0.8 0.9
Notes: Average annual changes and percentage changes are based on averages from 2000 to 2010, 2010 to current, and current to forecast.
The forecast period is from the current date (January 1, 2021) to January 1, 2024.
Sources: 2000 and 2010—2000 Census and 2010 Census; current and forecast—estimates by the analyst
Table 3. Gainesville HMA Population and Household Quick Facts
Home Sales Market 12Gainesville, Florida Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2021
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Gainesville, Florida
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
Home Sales Market
Market Conditions: Balanced
Total home sales are currently at
approximately two-thirds of the
2006 pre-Great Recession peak.
Recent Conditions
The sales housing market in the Gainesville HMA is
currently balanced, with an estimated vacancy rate
of 1.5 percent (Table 4), down from 3.1 percent in
April 2010 when conditions were soft. Approximately
5,325 new and existing homes sold during 2020.
Approximately 17 percent of the homes sold ranged
in price from $150,000 to $199,000 (Figure 7).
The inventory of active home listings during
December 2020 averaged 1.6 months of supply,
down from 2.6 months of supply during December
2019 (Gainesville-Alachua County Association
of Realtors®). The sales market has tightened
considerably compared with the recent high of
December 2012 when the average months of supply
of homes was 7.8 months.
Existing Home Sales
Existing home sales have generally increased in the
Gainesville HMA since a low of approximately 2,150
homes sold during 2009 (Zonda). Existing home
sales declined an average of 26 percent annually
from 2007 through 2009, when the economy was
weak, and population growth and the demand for
Home Sales
Quick Facts
Gainesville HMA Nation
Vacancy Rate
1.5% NA
Months of Inventory
1.6 2.3
Total Home Sales
5,325 6,212,000
1-Year Change
-2% -4%
New Home Sales Price
$305,500 $387,800
1-Year Change
0% 1%
Existing Home Sales Price
$226,700 $324,700
1-Year Change
8% 12%
Mortgage Delinquency Rate
3.7% 4.0%
NA = data not available.
Notes: The vacancy rate is as of the current date; home sales and prices are for the 12 months ending December 2020; and months of inventory and
mortgage delinquency data are as of December 2020. The current date is January 1, 2021.
Sources:
Vacancy rate estimate by analyst; CoreLogic, Inc.; Zonda; Gainesville-Alachua County Association of Realtors®
Table 4. Home Sales Quick Facts in the Gainesville HMA
Note: New and existing sales include single-family homes, townhomes, and condominium units.
Source: Zonda
0
5
10
15
20
$99k and
Lower
$100k to
$149k
$150k to
$199k
$200k to
$249k
$250k to
$299k
$300k to
$349k
$350k to
$399k
$400k to
$499k
$500k to
$1.2m
$1.2m and
More
Share of Sales (%)
Existing Sales New Sales
Figure 7. Share of Sales by Price Range During the 12 Months Ending December 2020 in the Gainesville HMA
Home Sales Market 13Gainesville, Florida Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2021
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Gainesville, Florida
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
homes slowed. From 2010 through 2013, existing
home sales increased rapidly, averaging gains of 13
percent annually, to 3,475 homes during 2013, while
net in-migration began to increase because the
economy was improving. From 2014 through 2019,
the economy improved, and existing home sales
rose an average of 6 percent a year to 4,950 homes
sold during 2019. During 2020, approximately 4,750
homes sold, down 4 percent from a year earlier due
to the effects of COVID-19.
Real estate owned (REO) sales accounted for
less than 2 percent of existing home sales in
the Gainesville HMA in 2006 but increased to a
high of 28 percent in 2012. While the economy
strengthened, REO sales fell 17 percent a year
from 2013 to 2020 and accounted for 4 percent of
existing sales in December 2020. This downward
trend is similar to the trend in REO sales for the
nation, which accounted for a high of more than
27 percent of existing sales in January 2009 and
decreased to slightly more than 3 percent of existing
sales in December 2020.
New Home Sales
Trends in new home sales in the Gainesville HMA
followed the overall trends in the economy, with
sales growth accelerating with job growth. From
2007 through 2011, new home sales fell an average
of 34 percent a year, decreasing from 1,900 homes
in 2006 to a low of 240 homes in 2011 (Figure 8).
As the economy began to recover after the Great
Recession in 2012 and 2013, new home sales rose
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Sales Totals
Regular Resale Sales REO Sales New Sales
REO = real estate owned.
Source: Zonda
Figure 8. 12-Month Sales Totals by Type in the Gainesville HMA
an average of 20 percent annually to reach 340 homes sold in 2013. Sales of new homes continued to increase
from 2014 through 2019, gaining 6 percent annually because the economy continued to expand. New home
sales increased 21 percent in 2020 to 590 homes, partly because buyers were more comfortable touring vacant
homes during the pandemic.
Home Sales Prices
During 2020, the average price of an existing home was $226,700, up 8 percent from a year earlier. The price
was 7 percent above the pre-recession peak of $211,200 in August 2007. From 2008 through 2012, when the
local economy slowed and contracted, the average existing home sales price declined 7 percent annually, to
$144,400 in 2012, before rebounding 10 percent during 2013 to $158,300. From 2014 through 2019, prices for
existing homes increased at a moderate pace, rising an average of 5 percent annually to $210,400 in 2019.
The average price for new homes exceeded the 2007 pre-recession high of $236,400 in September 2014.
Before the recession, the average price of a new home rose 12 percent during 2007 before falling an average
of 7 percent annually from 2008 through 2010 (Figure 9). With a stronger economy, prices rose an average of
6 percent a year from 2011 through 2014. From 2015 through 2020, new home sales price growth moderated,
increasing an average of 4 percent a year to $305,500 in 2020.
Home Sales Market 14Gainesville, Florida Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2021
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Gainesville, Florida
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
Seriously Delinquent
Mortgages
The rate of home loans that were seriously
delinquent or had transitioned into REO status in
the HMA has increased recently due to pandemic-
related job losses. During December 2020, the rate
was 3.7 percent in the HMA, up from 1.5 percent
a year earlier, but still well below the peak of 9.3
percent in mid-2012 (CoreLogic, Inc.). This increase
is due to the approximately 960 mortgages in
the HMA that were 90 or more days past due in
December 2020, more than two and one-half
times the number in December 2019. Despite the
recent increase in mortgage delinquencies, the
forbearance plans for federally backed mortgages in
the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security
(CARES) Act have allowed homeowners to avoid
foreclosure. Foreclosures fell by nearly 40 percent
since December 2019, and REOs have fallen by
more than one-half. By comparison, the rate for the
nation was 4.0 percent in December 2020, up from
1.4 percent in December 2019 and below the peak
of 8.6 percent in early 2010.
Sales Permit Activity
The current level of home construction activity, as
measured by the number of single-family homes,
townhomes, and condominiums permitted, is below
the level of the early-to-mid 2000s (Figure 10).
Permitting averaged 1,325 homes a year from 2000
through 2005, before declining by 220 homes, or
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Single-Family Homes/Townhomes Condominiums
Notes: Includes single-family homes, townhomes, and condominiums. Data for 2020 are through December 2020.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey; 2000 through 2019—final data and estimates by the analyst; 2020—preliminary data and
estimates by the analyst
Figure 10. Average Annual Sales Permitting Activity in the Gainesville HMA
REO = real estate owned.
Source: Zonda
50,000
150,000
250,000
350,000
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Average Sales Price ($)
Regular Resale Sales REO Sales New Sales
Figure 9. 12-Month Average Sales Price by Type of Sale in the Gainesville HMA
Home Sales Market 15Gainesville, Florida Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2021
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Gainesville, Florida
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
25 percent, annually from 2006 through 2011 to a
low of 300 homes in 2011, in response to weaker
sales market conditions. Permitting increased during
2012 and 2013, averaging 490 homes a year. As
the economic expansion strengthened from 2014
through 2019, permitting increased to an average
of 670 homes annually. During 2020, approximately
600 homes were permitted, down 29 percent from
the 840 homes permitted a year earlier (preliminary
data with adjustments by the analyst). The
construction of condominiums was more prevalent
during the early-to-mid 2000s, averaging 90 units
annually from 2000 through 2007. Since 2008,
however, fewer than 30 condominium units have
been permitted.
New Construction
Since 2010, homebuilding activity has mostly
occurred in Alachua County, in the cities of
Gainesville and Newberry, a community 30 miles
east of Gainesville. During the past decade,
nearly 60 percent of the construction has been
in unincorporated Alachua County. At Celebration
Pointe, a planned community east of Interstate 75
near Gainesville, 46 townhomes, with prices starting
in the low $300,000s, have been sold at The Vue, a
subdivision that will have 86 units upon completion
in 2021. About 15 percent of the homes built in the
past decade in the HMA were along Route 441 and
Interstate 75 near High Springs in northern Alachua
County, near employment centers. At Tara Village,
17 of the 20 available homes have been sold, which
NAHB = National Association of Home Builders. Q4 = fourth quarter.
Sources: NAHB; Wells Fargo
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Q4 12
Q4 13
Q4 14
Q4 15
Q4 16
Q4 17
Q4 18
Q4 19
Q4 20
NAHB Opportunity Index
Figure 11. Gainesville HMA Housing Opportunity Index
range from 1,600 to 2,300 square feet and with prices starting at $278,000. Approximately 10 percent of new
homes built in the past decade were in the city of Newberry. All 80 homes have sold in Newberry Corners, now
in the third and final phase of construction. These three- and four-bedroom homes range from 1,546 to 1,876
square feet, with prices ranging from $211,900 to $274,900.
Housing Affordability: Homeownership
Homeownership in the Gainesville HMA declined from 2010 to 2019, similar to the nation as a whole. During
the previous decade, from 2000 to 2010, the homeownership rate in the HMA decreased by 0.4 percentage
points, despite less stringent lending standards in the early-to-mid 2000s. Strengthening economic conditions
did not reverse the trend, and the homeownership rate declined 1.9 percentage points from 2010 to 2019.
Homeownership in the Gainesville HMA is becoming increasingly expensive, and the affordability of buying
a home has trended downward since the early 2010s as home prices have increased at a much faster rate
than income. The National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI)
for the HMA, which represents the share of homes sold that would have been affordable to a family earning
the local median income, was 65.1 during the fourth quarter of 2020, and 131 of the 237 metropolitan areas
measured had greater housing affordability than the Gainesville HMA (Figure 11). The HOI reached a high of
Home Sales Market 16Gainesville, Florida Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2021
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Gainesville, Florida
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
86.3 during the fourth quarter of 2012 when a
relatively large number of distressed homes for
sale kept downward pressure on home prices.
The HOI trended downward until 2018 and then
started to trend upward again. Home sales prices
in the HMA increased an average of 5 percent
annually from 2012 to 2020; however, the median
income in the HMA increased only 2 percent
annually during the same period. The downward
trending index indicates a decline in affordability.
The recent upward trend in the HOI since 2018 is
partly because higher home prices have been offset
slightly by lower mortgage rates.
Table 5. Demand for New Sales Units in the Gainesville HMA
During the Forecast Period
Sales Units
Demand 2,475 Units
Under Construction 840 Units
Note: The forecast period is from January 1, 2021, to January 1, 2024.
Source: Estimates by the analyst
Forecast
During the next 3 years, demand is expected for 2,475 new homes in the HMA (Table 5). The 840 homes
currently under construction will satisfy a portion of the estimated demand during the first year of the forecast
period. The sales demand is expected to be relatively stable during the 3-year period because population
growth will continue to be modest and stable.
Rental Market 17Gainesville, Florida Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2021
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Gainesville, Florida
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
Rental Market
Market Conditions: Balanced
The apartment market is slightly tight, with
a vacancy rate of 3.2 percent.
Current Conditions and
Recent Trends
Overall rental market conditions are currently
balanced in the Gainesville HMA. The rental vacancy
rate for all rental units (including apartments,
single-family homes, townhomes, and mobile
homes for rent) is estimated at 11.8 percent, down
from 12.4 percent in April 2010 when the market
was soft (Table 6). Rental market conditions had
generally followed economic conditions, becoming
soft during the economic downturn and tightening
when the economy strengthened. The apartment
market is typically tighter than the overall rental
market because of the demand for apartments by
UF students living off-campus. Students occupy
approximately one-fourth of rental units in the HMA.
Currently, there are fewer students on campus
because of countermeasures to slow the spread of
COVID-19. However, students are expected to return
to pre-pandemic levels in the fall of 2021.
Apartment Market Conditions
The apartment market in the HMA is currently
slightly tight. During the fourth quarter of 2020, the
apartment vacancy rate was 3.2 percent, up from
Table 6. Rental Market Quick Facts in the Gainesville HMA
2.5 percent during the fourth quarter of 2019 and below the 5.2 percent rate for the nation (Moody’s Analytics
REIS; Figure 12). The average apartment rent rose $13, or 1 percent, from a year earlier, to $1,013 during the
fourth quarter of 2020. By comparison, the average rent decreased 1 percent, to $1,383, nationally.
Student households account for 28 percent of renter households in the HMA. Some students rent apartments
similar to dormitories in which common rooms are shared and bedrooms are private. Others rent traditional
apartments, often sharing with roommates. The vacancy rate for student apartments, defined as those
apartments that are within 1 mile of the university that have more than 50 percent student renters, was 0.6
percent during the fall of academic year 2020–2021, down from 2.2 percent during the fall of academic year
2019–2020. The average student apartment rent rose $37, or 3 percent, from a year earlier, to $1,188 during the
fall of academic year 2020–2021. By comparison, student apartments that are rented by the bed are not as full.
The average per bed student vacancy rate was 5.7 percent, up from 1.7 percent during the fall of academic year
2019–2020. Part of the increase in per-bed vacancy can be attributed to fewer students on campus because
some have chosen to attend online courses during the pandemic. However, some vacancies can be attributed
to more units being added in the past year. The average student bed rent rose $24, or 4 percent, from a year
earlier, to $698 during the fall of academic year 2020–2021.
From 2006 through 2008, the overall apartment market in the HMA was balanced, and the supply of new
apartment units kept up with demand resulting from the economic expansion; during this period, the vacancy
rate averaged 5.7 percent, and the average rent increased 2 percent a year. The market softened in 2009 and
2010 during the economic downturn in the HMA; the vacancy rate rose to 8.2 percent, and rents fell 2 percent
annually. Market conditions trended toward balanced, with an average vacancy rate falling from 6.8 percent
Rental Market
Quick Facts
2010 (%) Current (%)
Rental Vacancy Rate
12.4 11.8
2010 (%) 2019 (%)
Occupied Rental Units by Structure
Single-Family Attached & Detached
27.0 26.0
Multifamily (2–4 Units)
16.0 18.0
Multifamily (5+ Units)
52.0 46.0
Other (Including Mobile Homes)
6.0 11.0
Notes: The current date is January 1, 2021. Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.
Sources: 2010 and 2019 American Community Survey, 1-year data; vacancy rate—2010 Census; current—estimates by the analyst
Rental Market 18Gainesville, Florida Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2021
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Gainesville, Florida
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
in 2011 to 4.1 percent in 2013 but tightened as
economic and population growth accelerated
and multifamily building remained low. Economic
conditions were relatively strong from 2014 through
2018. Student enrollment increased sharply, by an
average of 1,375, or 2.6 percent a year, compared
with 2011 through 2013, when student enrollment
increased by 160 students, or 0.3 percent a year.
Market conditions transitioned from balanced to
tight because multifamily construction remained
low. The vacancy rate decreased from 2.8 percent
in 2014 to 1.9 percent in 2018, and the average
rent increased 3 percent annually. The market
is expected to remain slightly tight until units
currently under construction are completed in 2021
and 2022.
Rental Permit Activity
The number of rental units permitted has trended
higher since 2015 and is currently above the
average level of the early-to-mid 2000s but
below the 2007 peak (Figure 13). The number of
rental units permitted averaged 840 units from
2000 through 2006 in response to economic and
population growth. After reaching a peak of 1,625
in 2007, permitting decreased significantly to
an average of only 280 units permitted annually
during the economic downturn from 2008 through
2010. Permitting averaged 220 units a year from
2011 through 2014 because builders were slow
to respond to the steady expansion of the local
economy. The number of units permitted annually
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Figure 13. Average Annual Rental Permitting Activity in the Gainesville HMA
Notes: Includes apartments and units intended for rental occupancy. Data for 2020 are through December 2020.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey; 2000 through 2019—final data and estimates by the analyst; 2020—preliminary data and
estimates by the analyst
Figure 12. Apartment Rents and Vacancy Rates in the Gainesville HMA
4Q = fourth quarter.
Source: Moody’s Analytics REIS
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
775
800
825
850
875
900
925
950
975
1,000
1,025
4Q 2006
4Q 2007
4Q 2008
4Q 2009
4Q 2010
4Q 2011
4Q 2012
4Q 2013
4Q 2014
4Q 2015
4Q 2016
4Q 2017
4Q 2018
4Q 2019
4Q 2020
Vacancy Rate (%)
Average Monthly Rent ($)
Average Monthly Rent Vacancy Rate
Rental Market 19Gainesville, Florida Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2021
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Gainesville, Florida
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
averaged 1,025 units from 2015 through 2019.
During 2020, 900 rental units were permitted, down
more than 40 percent from the 1,550 units permitted
a year earlier (preliminary data with adjustments by
the analyst). Some of this decline can be attributed
to builder caution because of the pandemic and an
increase in lumber prices.
Rental Construction Activity
Rental construction has been mostly concentrated in
the city of Gainesville and unincorporated Alachua
County since 2015. Integra Twenty Four, currently
leasing in west Gainesville, is a 232-unit community
with one-to-three-bedroom units with rents ranging
from $1,349 to $2,275. This development is between
UF and Interstate 75. Slightly more than 5 percent
of the rental units completed in the HMA in the
past 5 years were designed for renters age 55 and
older. On the eastern edge of the city of Gainesville,
Harper’s Pointe is a 66-unit, income-restricted
senior community expected to begin leasing in early
2021. These one- and two-bedroom units have rents
ranging from $680 to $875.
More than 80 percent of the rental units underway
are designed for UF students. Many apartments
for students consist of two-to-four-bedroom units,
with shared common areas and leases for individual
bedrooms. The Hub on Campus, built in 2020
across the street from UF, has 208 units, with
413 beds, and offers furnished bedrooms for rent
ranging from $750 to $1,280 per person. Currently,
apartment units under construction near UF include
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Gross Rent Affordability Index
Median Gross Rent and Income Growth (%)
Gross Rent Change Median Income Change Gross Rent Affordability Index
Figure 14. Gainesville HMA Gross Rent Affordability Index
MSA = Metropolitan Statistical Area.
Notes: Rental affordability is for the larger Gainesville MSA. The Gross Rent Affordability Index differs from the HUD Rental Affordability Index
published on the U.S. Housing Market Conditions website. It is based on combined rent and utilities expenditure.
Source: American Community Survey, 1-year data
Liv+, a 235-unit apartment community, and Campus Circle, with 156 units. Both communities are within 1 mile
of UF and are expected to be complete by fall of 2021. These developments will rent individual bedrooms in
shared furnished apartments.
Housing Affordability: Renter
Rental affordability in the Gainesville HMA has improved since 2017 because moderate rent growth was
accompanied by a sharp increase in the median income. From 2017 to 2019, the median household income
for renter households in the HMA outpaced median gross monthly rent growth. As a result, the HUD Rental
Affordability Index, a measure of median renter household income relative to qualifying income for the median-
priced rental unit, has remained higher. Figure 14 compares the year-to-year change in the median gross rent
(including single-family homes, apartments, and mobile homes for rent) with the respective change in the
median gross income. After the post-recession low point of 66.1 in 2012, rent affordability fluctuated at higher
levels before reaching a new low of 66.3 in 2017. In 2018, strong income growth was accompanied by an
increase in the affordability index to 79.9. In 2019 the index fell slightly to 79.0.
During the 2013-through-2017 period, an estimated 20.6 percent of all renter households in the HMA were cost
Rental Market 20Gainesville, Florida Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2021
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Gainesville, Florida
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
burdened—spending between 30 and 49 percent
of their income on rent—while 29.7 percent were
severely cost burdened—spending more than 50
percent of income toward rent (Table 7). Nationwide,
a larger proportion of renter households were
cost burdened; however, fewer were severely cost
burdened, at 21.8 and 22.9 percent, respectively.
Cost burdens are particularly notable, however,
for lower income renter households in the HMA.
For renter households with incomes less than 50
percent of the Area Median Family Income (AMFI), a
slightly lower proportion, 19.0 percent, were paying
between 30 and 49 percent of their incomes toward
rent, but more than one-half of households at these
income levels, or 55.4 percent, were severely cost
burdened. The share was higher nationally for cost-
burdened households, at 25.6 percent, but lower for
severely cost-burdened households, at 50.1 percent.
Cost Burdened Severely Cost Burdened
Gainesville HMA Nation Gainesville HMA Nation
Renter Households with Income <50% HAMFI 19.0 25.6 55.4 50.1
Total Renter Households 20.6 21.8 29.7 22.9
Table 7. Percentage of Cost Burdened Renter Households in the Gainesville HMA by Income, 2013–2017
HAMFI = HUD area median family income.
Note: “Cost-burdened” households spend between 30–49 percent of their income on rent, and “severely cost-burdened” households spend over 50
percent of their income on rent.
Sources: Consolidated Planning/CHAS Data, 2013–2017 American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (huduser.gov)
Note: The forecast period is January 1, 2021, to January 1, 2024.
Source: Estimates by the analyst
Table 8. Demand for New Rental Units in the Gainesville HMA During the Forecast Period
Rental Units
Demand 1,775 Units
Under Construction 1,625 Units
Forecast
During the next 3 years, demand is expected for 1,775 new rental units in the Gainesville HMA (Table 8). Most of
the demand is expected to be met by the 1,625 units currently under construction. The demand is expected to
be relatively stable during each year of the forecast period because renter growth is expected to increase at a
stable rate, in line with student enrollment and job growth.
Terminology Definitions and Notes 21Gainesville, Florida Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2021
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Gainesville, Florida
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
Terminology Definitions and Notes
A. Definitions
Building Permits
Building permits do not necessarily reflect all residential building activity that occurs in an HMA. Some units are constructed or created without a building
permit or are issued a different type of building permit. For example, some units classified as commercial structures are not reflected in the residential building
permits. As a result, the analyst, through diligent fieldwork, makes an estimate of this additional construction activity. Some of these estimates are included in
the discussions of single-family and multifamily building permits.
Cost Burdened Spending more than 30 percent of household income on housing costs.
Demand
The demand estimates in the analysis are not a forecast of building activity. They are the estimates of the total housing production needed to achieve a
balanced market at the end of the 3-year forecast period given conditions on the as-of date of the analysis, growth, losses, and excess vacancies. The
estimates do not account for units currently under construction or units in the development pipeline.
Distressed Sales Short sales and real estate owned (REO) sales.
Existing Home
Sales
Includes regular resale and real estate owned sales.
Forecast Period 1/1/2021–1/1/2024—Estimates by the analyst.
Terminology Definitions and Notes 22Gainesville, Florida Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2021
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Gainesville, Florida
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
Home Sales/
Home Sales
Prices
Includes single-family, townhome, and condominium sales.
Net Natural
Change
Resident births minus resident deaths.
Other Vacant
Units
In this analysis conducted by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), other vacant units include all vacant units that are not available
for sale or for rent. The term therefore includes units rented or sold but not occupied; held for seasonal, recreational, or occasional use; used by migrant
workers; and the category specified as “other” vacant by the Census Bureau.
Rental Market/
Rental Vacancy
Rate
Includes apartments and other rental units such as single-family, multifamily, and mobile homes.
Seriously
Delinquent
Mortgages
Mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure.
B. Notes on Geography
1.
The metropolitan statistical area definition noted in this report is based on the delineations established by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in the
OMB Bulletin dated April 10, 2018.
2. Urbanized areas are defined using the U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census Urban and Rural Classification and the Urban Area Criteria.
3. The census tracts referenced in this report are from the 2010 Census.
Terminology Definitions and Notes 23Gainesville, Florida Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2021
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Gainesville, Florida
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
C. Additional Notes
1.
The NAHB Housing Opportunity Index represents the share of homes sold in the HMA that would have been affordable to a family earning the local median
income, based on standard mortgage underwriting criteria.
2.
This analysis has been prepared for the assistance and guidance of HUD in its operations. The factual information, findings, and conclusions may also be
useful to builders, mortgagees, and others concerned with local housing market conditions and trends. The analysis does not purport to make determinations
regarding the acceptability of any mortgage insurance proposals that may be under consideration by the Department.
3.
The factual framework for this analysis follows the guidelines and methods developed by the Economic and Market Analysis Division within HUD. The analysis
and findings are as thorough and current as possible based on information available on the as-of date from local and national sources. As such, findings or
conclusions may be modified by subsequent developments. HUD expresses its appreciation to those industry sources and state and local government officials
who provided data and information on local economic and housing market conditions.
Cover Photo iStock
Contact Information
Karen M. Ostrye, Economist
Atlanta HUD Regional Office
678–732–2233
